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  • A Sloth’s Slick Progress «-- Click to Read

    February 03, 2012

    By Scott Burns

    In November we celebrated the 20th anniversary of Couch Potato investing, the power of sloth and the opportunities gained by undiluted investment ignorance. If you missed the celebration, you are not alone. Our friends in major investment centers also failed to take notice. So did the talking heads on TV.

    All are still wringing their hands around their cloudy crystal ball. They hope for a sign that will make them rich, preferably overnight. I say invest for what’s probable, not for what’s possible.

    To be sure, thinking about the future is an interesting, if idle, exercise. It also pays a lot better than working at Walmart. But the reality is that you and I can do quite well without the great prognosticators. Year after year, decade after decade, the performance figures show that you and I can do better on our own.

    How? We can do it investing in very broad and very low-cost index funds. Here’s the latest proof:

    Last year was not a great year for investing. But if you had invested in the most basic Couch Potato portfolio, a 50/50 mix of the Vanguard (or equivalent) Total Stock Market index and the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, your return for the year would have been 7.18 percent. Domestic stocks didn’t do much for us but, thanks to our worrisome friends in Washington, inflation protected securities rocked, returning 13.24 percent for the year.

    The Couch Potato portfolio would have beaten 98 percent of what Morningstar classifies as “moderate allocation” funds for the year. These funds, also called balanced funds, are typically 60 percent equities, 40 percent fixed income. The basic Couch Potato portfolio would have beaten 97 percent of “conservative allocation” funds—funds that are typically 40 percent equities, 60 percent fixed income. Over the last 5 years this simple approach would have done better than 97 percent of all moderate allocation funds and 91 percent of all conservative allocation funds.

    This is not an annual occurrence. But superior performance isn’t a fluke, either. If you had invested $10,000 in the original Couch Potato portfolio with the mutual funds that were available 20 years ago— the Vanguard 500 Index fund and Vanguard Total Bond Market fund— your investment would have been worth $45,796 at the end of 2011. That’s a 4-fold plus increase. It’s a compound annual return of 7.9 percent —with no heavy lifting. If you had replaced the Vanguard 500 Index Fund with Total Stock Market Index Fund and Total Bond Market Fund with Inflation Protected Securities Fund as our tools evolved, your 20-year return would be somewhat higher.

    Trust me, rebalancing was worth the effort. According to Morningstar data, the Vanguard 500 Index fund returned 7.71 percent annualized for the 20-year period. The Total Bond Market index returned 6.32 percent. Rebalancing worked to increase your return. It truly added value. Did that little bit of activity put you on top of the investing heap.


    Read more about Couch Potato Investing here.


    No, some managed funds did better. But most did not. Here are the names, ticker symbols, annualized returns and percentage ranking in deciles of some of the best known of those managed funds:

    • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX), 10.28 percent, decile 1
    • Vanguard Wellington (VWELX), 9.01 percent, decile 1
    • American Funds Income Fund of America (AMECX), 8.67 percent, decile 2
    • Fidelity Puritan (FPURX), 8.43 percent, decile 2
    • American Funds American Balanced Fund (ABALX), 8.37 percent, decile 2
    • GAMCO Westwood Balanced (WEBCX), 8.09 percent, decile 3
    • T. Rowe Price Balanced (RPBAX), 7.49 percent, decile 4

    With only 79 moderate allocation funds surviving the 20-year period, Morningstar wisely limits ranking to deciles, so we can only estimate that the original Couch Potato portfolio would have done better than three of every four managed funds. This figure is consistent with multiple studies that have shown managed funds fail to beat their assigned index benchmark about 70 percent of the time.

    Still tempted to pin your future on a rare winner? Then think a bit about the odds. When you try to select a winning manager your chance is about 1 in 4. When you take the index route you’ll come out ahead of 3 of 4 managed funds.

    ... More…

  • A Good Match Can Compensate for Poor Choices In a 401(k) Plan «-- Click to Read

    February 01, 2012

    By Scott Burns

    Q. My husband and I are putting $5,000 each in our Roth IRAs. They are with Vanguard and we are using the Couch Potato method. I also have a 401(k) account with my job and I only put enough in for the match. I put in $83 a month. My agency puts in $83. The problem is that the 401(k) plan choices are terrible, with lots of fees. I'm wondering whether I should be doing this at all. The plan is with an insurance company and the fund that I chose is the BlackRock Lifepath 2030. I've thought that it was a good thing to do, because I'm getting a 100 percent match on my $83 investment. Am I right? —A. H., Dripping Springs, TX

    ... More…


  • The “Good Life” Is Also a Long Life «-- Click to Read

    January 27, 2012

    By Scott Burns

    Sarasota, Florida. There are, very roughly, three kinds of elderly people in America. There are the people who have already run out of money. They live on their Social Security checks. Then there are the people who are likely to run out of money and worry about it. If reader mail is any indication, they worry about it more each day.

    ... More…


  • iSavings Bonds versus TIPS «-- Click to Read

    January 25, 2012

    By Scott Burns

    Q. Are I Savings Bonds better to have than TIPS? They are paying me about 4.5 percent. —G.F., Austin, TX

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  • Cape Coral and the Recovery of Dreams «-- Click to Read

    January 20, 2012

    By Scott Burns

    Cape Coral, Florida.  There was a time when Henry Ford and Thomas Edison looked across the Caloosahatchee River from their estates in Fort Meyers and saw Cape Coral as thousands of acres of mangrove swamp. Today, after an improbable development that was chronicled in “The Lies that Turned to Truth”, Cape Coral is everyman’s dream of Florida, retirement and the good life— sunshine, water, fishing, 400 miles of canals, and more sunshine. Not to mention golf.

    ... More…



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