“Historically, You Can Miss the Recovery in the Blink of an Eye,” Financial Advisor Says
DALLAS – October 13, 2008 – During a steep decline in the financial markets like the one Americans face currently, investors are tempted to make rash decisions. But pulling money out of the stock market during a downturn, and then missing the start of the recovery, can put a major dent in your finances over the long term, says Kennon Grose, president and chief executive officer of AssetBuilder, a Registered Investment Advisor that combines low-cost index funds with science-based diversification strategies.
“Historically, you can miss a recovery of the financial markets in the blink of any eye,” Grose says. “As an example, let’s look at the period from January 1980 to August 2008. If you held investments during this timeframe that reflected the major indices, you would have achieved a significant return.
“But if you had pulled your money outof the market during the best six individual months of this 28+ year period, you would have missed out on nearly half of the return. That’s right: six months, spread across three decades, is responsible for nearly half of the long-term return during this period.”
The percentage returns of four broad indices from January 1980 to August 2008 -- with and without the best six months -- are shown below:
| 1/1980 — 8/2008 |
Growth of $1 (all months) |
Growth of $1 (without best 6 months) |
| S&P 500 TR |
27.11 |
15.44 |
| MSCI EAFE TR |
20.34 |
11.51 |
| Russell 2000 Val TR |
41.42 |
22.04 |
| DJ Wilshire REIT TR |
30.28 |
16.00 |
Grose says this historical data demonstrates the wisdom of staying calm – and holding on to your investments -- during the current financial crisis.
“The global market decline has led to some extreme talk and behavior among pundits and investors. For example, Jim Cramer of CNBC has advised the public to sell stocks now if they will need any money in the next five years,” Grose says.
“In the face of such reaction, it’s important to understand that this market is not unique. We have had similarly steep declines before, most recently from 2000-2002. We have also had past credit scares. Recall Michael Milken and the junk bond era, or risky lending to REITs in the late ‘70s, or the S&L lending binge of the early ‘80s. In every previous instance, the market has recovered.”
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http://www.assetbuilder.com/.
This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the opinions of AssetBuilder Inc. The opinion of the author is subject to change without notice. All materials presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is distributed for educational puposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Performance data shown represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown.
AssetBuilder Inc. is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Consider the investment objectives, risks, and expenses carefully before investing.