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How To Avoid Being A Boiled Frog

The instructions are very clear. If you want to boil a frog, you don't drop it into boiling water because it will immediately jump out.

Instead, we are to place the frog in a pot of cold water. Then we turn up the heat. The frog will be lulled to sleep by the rising temperature. It will expire quietly.

This, sadly, is the position of many people who retire with fixed pensions. Their retirements may start in great comfort--- but slowly 'cook' with inflation.

Fortunately, this problem can be solved with the simple purchase of iSavings Bonds. Let me show you how.

Suppose you are about to retire. You and your spouse will receive total Social Security benefits of $2,000 a month. You also have a corporate pension in the same amount. This means your retirement income will be $48,000 a year. You feel quite secure building your spending plans around that $4,000 monthly income. Everything is squared away.

At the end of the first year, your Social Security income rises by a bit less than inflation   (your Medicare premium went up). It's now $2,040 a month or $24,480 a year. Your pension stays at $24,000. That's a total of $48,480 a year.

Unfortunately, your cost of living has risen by 3 percent. It's now $49,440 a year. That means you're $960 short--- after only one year. When you start your third year, Social Security will bring in $24,970 and your pension will be the same old $24,000. But your cost of living will be $50,923.   Now you're $1,954 short.

By the fifth year your shortfall is $4,046. By the tenth year it's $9,947.   Your standard of living has fallen 16 percent. The table below shows the impact to 25 years the joint expectancy of a couple. Even with a modest inflation assumption of 3 percent a year--- far less than what many retirees' experience--- the bite on a fixed pension is painful by the tenth year. It's downright horrible by the 15th year.

  
The Slow Boiled Frog of Pension Retirement
This table shows impact of rising living costs on a retirement income that is based on a fixed pension and Social Security benefits
Year Income- Spending= Shortfall Living Standard Reduction in %
1st $48,000 $48,000 $0 0%
2nd $48,480 $48,940 $940 1.9%
3rd $48,970 $50,923 $1,954 3.8%
5th $49,978 $54,023 $4,046 7.5%
10th $52,682 $62,629 $9,947 15.9%
15th $55,667 $72,604 $16,937 23.3%
20th $58,963 $84,168 $25,205 29.9%
25th $62,602 $97,574 $34,972 35.8%
Source: Author calculations. Assumes 2% net increase in Social Security retirement benefits and 3% inflation rate.
  

That's where iBonds come in. These bonds can be purchased online or at financial institutions at no cost. They can also be purchased in denominations as small as $50. They currently yield 2.00 percent plus the rate of inflation. The entire return is tax deferred until the bonds are redeemed. While they will always provide a yield equal to the inflation rate, the 2.00 percent of "real" return is reset every six months for bonds purchased in each period. The next reset comes up in November. A couple can buy $60,000 a year of these securities.

Recently Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a similar instrument, were providing a real yield of 1.71 percent for 5-year maturities and 2.44 percent for 10-year maturities.   These securities have the disadvantage that the entire return--- including the increase in principal to allow for inflation--- is currently taxable. So iBonds are convenient and competitive.

You can guarantee that your purchasing power remains constant simply by buying an iBond for each year you want to look ahead. Since you're earning a real return, you won't need to invest $1,000 today to provide $1,000 of real purchasing power in the future.  An even better way to make maximum use of these securities is to start buying them five or more years before retirement. (If you redeem iBonds before five years there is a penalty.)

Could you guarantee your purchasing power for the rest of your live?

Yes, but the longer you look ahead, the greater the odds an equity investment will bring a higher real return.

Want to learn more?

Only published comments... Aug 27 2002, 10:40 AM by scottb


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About scottb

Scott Burns has covered the changing world of personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years. Today, he ranks as one of the five most widely read personal finance writers in the country. Scott began his career as a newspaper columnist at the Boston Herald in 1977 where he was also the financial editor. Nationally syndicated in 1981 and now distributed by Universal Press, the column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. In 1985 he joined the staff of the Dallas Morning News where his column quickly became one of the most widely read features in the paper. He left the Dallas Morning News in 2006 to become one of the founders of AssetBuilder and its Chief Investment Strategist. Burns is a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1962). He has written four books, including "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004) coauthored with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff. His fourth book, also coauthored with Kotlikoff, was published in 2008 by Simon & Schuster. The paperback edition will be available in January, 2010.  "Spend Til' the End" uses consumption smoothing to demonstrate the errors of conventional financial planning. His business experience includes working as a staffer for a major consulting company and service as a director and audit chairman of a NASDAQ listed manufacturing company. He and his wife now live in Dripping Springs, a "hill country" town about 25 miles outside of Austin.


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