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Cultivating the Affluent Cash Cow

cow_1.jpgToday's awkward situation: Suppose the rich and the affluent were cows. And suppose the rest of us ran the farm.

Query: Are we treating the herd right?

The answer, according to the most recent IRS statistics, is a resounding yes. Over the last two years, tax collections have enjoyed the largest increase in history.

We're doing right well by the herd. They are treating us well in return. The herd is growing. It is providing a good deal of milk in the form of tax payments. Year after year, the productivity of the herd appears to be growing because it is yielding ever more tax milk.

The most productive cows on the farm are otherwise known as corporate executives. Their specially engineered tax milk comes from stock options, which are generally taxed at ordinary income tax rates when realized. So it's the rich and creamy 35 percent stuff. The more of these cows we have in the herd, the greater the productivity of our tax farm.

Needless to say, this isn't the conventional way of looking at income tax statistics. Even corporate executives, who get called lots of things, might object to being thought of as cash cows.

The usual view is to bemoan the growth of income at the top. After that, we worry about how it is depriving the rest of us of our ability to pay for cell phone minutes, lattes, lottery tickets and other life essentials.

In fact, if "taxes are the price of civilization," most of us are getting our civilization cheap.

Why? Because the rich and affluent -- our cash cows -- are paying most of the bill. In 1986, according to IRS data, the top 10 percent of all households had incomes of $48,656 or more, collected 35.1 percent of all income and paid 54.7 percent of all income taxes. They paid an average tax rate of 22.6 percent.

By the recently released figures for 2004, the top 10 percent of all households enjoyed adjusted gross incomes of $99,112 or more. They collected 44.3 percent of all income. And they paid a whopping 65.7 percent of all taxes, at an average rate of 18.6 percent. Lower tax rates on top-earner income had the beneficial result of reducing the portion of the tax burden that the other 90 percent had to pick up.

Viewed from the other end of the pyramid, the bottom 90 percent of all households collected only 55.7 percent of all income. But they paid only 31.8 percent of all taxes. Better still, they paid at an average rate of only 6.9 percent. As a practical matter, you're pretty much excused as a taxpayer if your income is in the bottom 50 percent, some $30,124 or less in 2004, because your average tax rate will be only 2.94 percent.

If human beings didn't change their behavior when taxes were changed -- and the idea that they don't is one of the most persistent delusions of politicians -- we could see some very interesting changes in tax policy.

Suppose, for instance, that the average tax rate on the cash cows in the top 10 percent was increased from 18.6 percent to an average tax rate of 27.3 percent. The poor cash cows would be trapped into paying enough income tax so the other 90 percent wouldn't have to pay a cent.

Daring journalist that I am, I'd bet heavy money that more than 51 percent of all voters would be in favor of such a plan. Indeed, I can imagine the positive vote going to nearly 90 percent.

Then again, if you yanked an additional 8.7 percent from those fabulously well-off households that earn $99,112 or more, there's a good chance much of the income being taxed would mysteriously disappear.

So the bottom 90 percent would still have some income taxes to pay.

cow_chart.jpg

CULTIVATING THE TOP 10 PERCENT EARNER CASH COW

  

Year

Average Tax Rate

Percent of Taxes Paid

2004

18.60

68.19

2003

18.39

65.84

2002

20.51

65.73

2001

21.41

64.89

2000

22.34

67.33

1999

21.98

66.45

1998

21.42

65.04

1997

21.36

63.20

1996

21.55

62.51

1995

20.97

60.75

1994

20.48

59.45

1993

20.20

59.24

1992

19.13

58.01

1991

18.63

55.82

1990

18.50

55.36

1989

18.77

55.78

1988

19.18

57.28

1987

19.77

55.61

1986

22.64

54.69

Source: Internal Revenue Service

Needless to say, this is not the end of all tax discussion. Much could be said about the regressive impact of the employment tax. We could still worry about the long-term impact of the increasing concentration of income among the top earners, or the difficulty many workers have in increasing their real income.

The one thing we really can't talk about is whether the affluent are paying their fair share. They are.

ON THE WEB

SOI Tax Stats - Individual Income Tax Rates and Tax Shares

  

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Personal finance writer Scott Burns is syndicated by Universal Press. His twice weekly column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. He is the Chief Investment Strategist for AssetBuilder, Inc. Readers can register at www.scottburns.com. Questions/comments can be posted directly. They can also be sent, without registration, to scott@scottburns.com. Questions of general interest will be answered in future columns and on this blog.

Click on the "Archive" navigation to see other columns. All comments are welcomed and appreciated.

Comments

 

ABModerator03 said:

Hi Scott. Excellent article as usual.

When you say that "there's a good chance much of the income being taxed would mysteriously disappear", are you saying that at some tax rate point it becomes easier and cheaper for the wealthy to just pay the taxes rather than look to CPA's/tax lawyers, etc., to shelter it?

Also, the 10% level doesn't seem high enough. Doesn't the income level number skew almost vertically from $99,112 up to the astronomical numbers of millions a year very quickly with each additional percentage point? I'd like to see the same numbers in the chart above figured for the top 3, 4, or 5% rather than the top 10%. Thanks. --Chris

From Scott Burns:

Here are the figures for the 2000-2004 period. Note that these are threshold figures--- meaning that the bottom of the indicated group starts at that level. Most people, particularly those who live in affluent urban areas, are shocked when they learn you can be in the top 25 percent with only $60,041 of income and that you are in the top 5 percent of households with an income of $137,056.

Statistically, we pay altogether too much attention to the "fat tails" of income distribution--- the incomes of top athletes, corporate execs, and partners at large law firms. The reality is that the air gets thin very fast and that much of the income at the top doesn't come so much from large salaries as it does from having more than one earner in a household.
October 16, 2006 11:04 AM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Scott-

As usual, yesterday's column was very interesting. However, I can't reconcile the section "Minority payers" and our own experience.

My child is a single hourly worker in LA, w/gross for 2005 of $28,874, just below your citation of $30,124 as "pretty much excused as a taxpayer". I filed the 2005 1040EZ. Tax: $2,729 yields 9.45% of gross. Add in SS of $1,790 and the sum yields 15.65% of gross. Add in CA of $553 and the sum yields 17.57% of gross.

I cannot reconcile this with your quoted rate of 2.94%. Do I need to file amended returns for the last several years?

Enjoy your column very much and always read it first.

Brooks, Dallas TX

From Scott Burns:

That 2.94 percent figure is an average figure so it includes a great deal of households whose income is way below the $30k figure. Your child, on the other hand, is close to the top of the scale for the group and, worse, is single.I think the greater concern is the combination of employment taxes and income taxes for those with lower incomes. Many households have zero federal income tax liabilities but still pay significant employment taxes. When you add the two together and, then, re-examine the distribution of the tax burden you get a far less graduated tax system. Personally, I think this is a primary concern for the young because they are the ones facing cuts in promised Social Security benefits.

  
Top 1 Percent
Top 5 Percent
Top 10 Percent
Top 25 Percent
Top 50 Percent

2000

313,469

92,144

55,225

27,682

2001

292,913

127,904

92,754

56,085

28,528

2002

285,424

126,525

92,663

56,401

28,654

2003

295,495

130,080

94,891

57,343

29,019

2004

328,049

137,056

99,112

60,041

30,122

October 16, 2006 4:29 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Scott,

I enjoy your articles in our local newspaper, but wanted to comment on some numbers here. In the last 20 years, the income cutoff to be in the top 10% has more than doubled. During that time, the % of all income accounted for by this group increased by 26% (35.1% to 44.3%) while the % of all taxes paid for by them increased only 20% (from 54.7% to 65.7%). So their percentage of total income increased significantly faster than their percentage of total taxes paid.

How doesn't this gibe with the feeling that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, and the middle class is disappearing? I would say the fat cows aren't comtributing their fair share to the herd. And I say this despite my household being in that top 10%.

Sincerely, Mike

From Scott Burns:

I think the answer depends on your focus. A good tax is supposed to be the tax that raises the most revenue with the least trouble. If the highest earners are carrying more and more of the burden while paying at lower tax rates, it is algebraically necessary for them to be receiving more of the income. As a practical matter, it matters little unless they start collecting so much of the income that it changes the dynamics of our society.

That may be happening.

It may not.

We certainly worry about it, but I'm not certain that it is a justifiable worry. Or one that we can do anything about.

If foreign labor costs are holding down the bottom end of the distribution but labor shifting is creating new opportunities at the top end of the scale, it seems inevitable that the distribution of income will become more unequal. Stopping the shift, however, may do more harm than good.

Does it strike me that top incomes are too high relative to ordinary incomes? Yes. And, like you, I say that while being in the top 10 percent.
October 16, 2006 4:59 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Dear Scott: I have a couple of comments on this recent column I wish you would consider. Two are minor and one is major.

The two minor comments:

1. Wherefore 10%? Why choose this value over some other? I believe that making this choice has a bit effect on the debate. This is because the distribution of wealth in the USA is very top heavy. I believe that the top 1% have about 1/2 of the income and the top 0.1% have about 1/3 of the total income. It might be worthwhile thinking how your article would look if this number were 30%, 1% 0.1% and maybe even 0.01%.

2. It's a little disturbing your comment about if we raised taxes, income would disappear. We usually don't use this type of logic in government matters. For instance we don't say people will do drugs so we should legalize them and we don't say people will rob houses so we shouldn't have locks on them.

Major point: this has to to with your conclusion that "...the affluent are paying their fair share". I'm not sure it is as obvious as you make it out to be, at least in part because people differ about what is "fair". I think it would be worthwhile exploring this point in more detail. In fact I wish there was a national discussion of this.

Suppose we have two guys A and B. A makes $1M per year and B makes $10K per year. What is fair? What is a fair share?

Suppose A pays $200K per year in taxes and B pays $200 in taxes.

Is this fair or not?

If A's taxes were raised to $300K, he would chafe but B would still happily change places with him. If B's taxes were raised to $400/yr or cut to $100/yr would this be more or less fair to A? More or less fair to B?

Dana

From Scott Burns:

In 2004, according to the IRS, the top 1 percent received 19 percent of all income, up from 11.3 percent in 1986 but down from the 2000 peak of 20.81 percent. You can examine the actual figures at this URL: http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/indtaxstats/article/0,,id=133521,00.html and going to the bottom of the page.

As a practical matter while most of us have little choice in how we realize our income and generally seek more, those at the very top of the income pyramid may choose to avoid realizing income. One of the reason the top 1 percent share of income was so high in 2000 is that top incomes were inflated by capital gains realizations. Put a high tax on capital gains and realizations will be deferred simply because they can be deferred. Put a low tax, such as the current 15 percent rate, and wealthy people will be more inclined to realize gains.
November 21, 2006 9:53 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Mr Burns --

I don't actually remember the 1950s (I was a kid then). But I recall that marginal income tax rates topped out at something like 90%, and that CEOs averaged only 25 times the median income of manufacturing workers. And that this was the most prosperous period in US history, with incomes going up and income inequality coming down at speed.

The high marginal taxes and relatively meager compensation of top executives didn't seem to harm the economy.

I don't know if the affluent (including me) are now paying their "fair share."

I do know that tax receipts are grossly inadequate for current and projected future costs of maintaining our civilization. I should be paying more than 35% marginal -- and those with $10s of millions in annual compensation should be paying yet more on the margin. We can afford it, we won't stop earning, and the country needs it.

David (cash cow)

From Scott Burns:

Right on. When tax extremists point to the Laffer Curve they should be reminded that it is an idea, not a historical fact. Taxes affect how much we work and how we realize our income but the variations in our history prove that a lot more is involved.

That said, I'd like to chuck the tax system simply to be able to open a broad conversation about how we will fund the benefits promised in Social Security and Medicare.  
November 21, 2006 9:56 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Scott, outstanding work, even though you got all the data from the IRS.

My point is this AND is what I preach. If I am paying this little in taxes (and few people know what their "effective" tax rate is) Should I really be putting money aside in tax DEFERRED products such as IRA's, 401k's, (and all the appropriate numbers) Now if the Boss is matching then great, contribute up to the matching %, but if not, people should dump as much in products that would provide TAX FREE growth and tax free distribution. Would make a great article right behind this one.

The fact is (look at the history) this may be one of the lowest tax tables every. If that's true (and with some peoples doomsday attitudes) don't you think it's a good bet that taxes are going to go UP, because they sure as heck ain't going down. The IRA, 401k, etc. gov't pitch is put the money aside now when you're in a HIGHER tax bracket and retire when you'll, most likely, be in a LOWER tax bracket. Just ain't so anymore. Anyway, enjoyed this article and will reprint the tax %'s. Great stuff.

Randy

From Scott Burns:

Yes, I think future tax rates are likely to be higher, not lower. I think this will be particularly true for our youngest workers because they are the ones who will see their Social Security benefits cut AND have to pay higher employment taxes. This is not a matter of doomsday projections. The unfunded liabilities listed in the annual reports of the Social Security and Medicare Trustee reports are prudent projections.

You can read more about this is "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press 2004) the book I coauthored with economist Larry Kotlikoff.
November 21, 2006 10:04 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Thanks for the information. Who would have known that I am amongst the "fabulously well-off" "affluent" as my household income just qualifies for the top 10%.

I still struggle to pay off a mortgage (seemingly a lifetime pursuit), my wife drives a 6 year old auto with 150,000 miles on it. I have little savings other than my 401k, which is significantly under-funded for my age, and I found out yesterday that I have to buy 2 new furnaces for my house. But, hallelujah, I am fabulously well-off and among the affluent class.

So we can't talk about whether the affluent are paying their fair share of the taxes huh? Well, it is true that I am paying my fair share, and so are a lot of others, namely those in the bottom half of this "affluent" group. But I certainly don't think everyone in my fabulously wealthy class does! An examination of the taxes paid as a percentage of income by percentile (90-91, 91-92, 92-93, 93-94, 95-96, 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-100) will reveal the disparities. You should find that the super-rich (97nth percentile? and above) pay a significantly lower percentage than the rest of us "affluent" people (since most of their income is long term investment income taxed at 15%). And I don't want to hear about total dollars. We should look at percentages, not dollars.

Meanwhile this affluent person is looking for a second job to pay for his new furnaces.

Have a good day.

From Scott Burns:

We tend to discount our personal affluence because we are always measuring ourselves against those who have more income. But, in fact, you are well off compared to 9 out of 10 Americans. Only when we get well beyond the top 1 percent--- those earning well over $300,000--- will you start to find the folks who may, in some years, enjoy paying capital gains taxes at 15 percent. But most of those earning $200,000 and $300,000 are still working stiffs. The good news is that they don't have to pay much in employment taxes. The bad news is that they pay 33 percent on each additional dollar earned.
November 21, 2006 10:06 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Mr. Burns:

Reading your article (published in the Houston Chronicle) was like a breath of fresh air. Instead of the tired old class warfare rationale of so many journalists, you use logic and facts as well as a style that anyone should be able to read and understand.

I also appreciate the way you respond to the criticisms raised by those that write you in response to your columns. Not only does it show respect for your readers, it helps to set the record straight, particularly where people have their facts wrong. That is one thing that really bothers me about so much of journalism these days: the sloppy manner with which people deal with facts, particularly facts they don't like. I will continue to read your column every time I see it.

Keep up the good work,

Thank you,

Paul

  

From Scott Burns:

Thanks for your very kind note.   I think we're of the same mind when it comes to facts. Many people seem to think in reduced, all-or-none terms. In fact, we need to do careful calibrations of most issues because they are far more subtle than most people realize.

As a writer I have always been surprised by the polar extremes I encounter. On the one hand there are lots of very bright and thoughtful people out there. They make my work a real pleasure--- and a good reason not to retire.

On the other, I am regularly surprised at the number of people who read for purpose of emoting and exercising their prejudices rather than to acquire new knowledge.

Sadly, the emoters appear to gaining the upper hand…
November 30, 2006 8:38 PM

About scottb

Scott Burns has covered the changing world of personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years. Today, he ranks as one of the five most widely read personal finance writers in the country. Scott began his career as a newspaper columnist at the Boston Herald in 1977 where he was also the financial editor. Nationally syndicated in 1981 and now distributed by Universal Press, the column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. In 1985 he joined the staff of the Dallas Morning News where his column quickly became one of the most widely read features in the paper. He left the Dallas Morning News in 2006 to become one of the founders of AssetBuilder and its Chief Investment Strategist. Burns is a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1962). He has written four books, including "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004) coauthored with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff. His fourth book, also coauthored with Kotlikoff, will be published this spring by Simon & Schuster. "Spend Til' the End" uses consumption smoothing to demonstrate the errors of conventional financial planning. His business experience includes working as a staffer for a major consulting company and service as a director and audit chairman of a NASDAQ listed manufacturing company. He and his wife divide their time between Dallas and Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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