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Making Bets on a Falling Dollar Isn't Easy

Q: What do you think of foreign bond funds as an investment? What is the thinking behind them -- i.e., are they considered a hedge against a falling dollar? -- L.E., Houston

A: The broad idea is that it's a big world out there, with lots of borrowers. Some markets may offer more opportunity than others. That can be said without any consideration of currency opportunities. All other things being equal, for instance, yields are somewhat higher in Europe, but much lower in Japan.

The second level of opportunity is as a currency play, provided the fund you invest in doesn't hedge away its currency risk. In funds that aren't fully hedged, you are seeking both the yield of the foreign bond and the benefit of currency gains if the dollar falls against other currencies. Indeed, there are two funds whose names tell you they are a bet against the dollar: Rydex Dynamic Weakening Dollar (ticker: RYWDX) and Profunds Falling U.S. Dollar (ticker: FDPIX). With expense ratios of 1.70 percent and 1.50 percent, respectively, these funds are for speculators, not long-term investors.

As outlined in my book "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, $18), I believe the dollar is in a long-term secular decline against other major currencies. While many commentators blame this on (1) the federal deficit or (2) the trade deficit, the root cause is more likely declining trust in the value of our currency as the cost of funding Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid continues to soar.

This problem was mentioned by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in his Jan. 18 Senate Budget Committee testimony:

"The deficit in the unified federal budget declined for a second year in fiscal year 2006, falling to $248 billion from $319 billion in fiscal 2005. ... Unfortunately, we are experiencing what seems likely to be the calm before the storm ...

"In fiscal 2006, federal spending for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid together totaled about 40 percent of federal expenditures, or roughly 8 1/2 percent of GDP. ... By 2030, according to the CBO, they will reach about 15 percent of GDP."

Sadly, foreign fixed-income is one area where ETF registrations have been relatively slow. Although there are now ETFs that hold portfolios of euros, pounds, Swiss francs, Mexican pesos, Australian dollars, Canadian dollars and the Swedish kronar, there is only one "basket" ETF, the Powershares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (ticker: DBV). Unfortunately, it is a gimmicky fund because it buys some currencies long and sells others short, a strategy that has little to do with hedging against a declining dollar.

Most of the mutual funds in this area are load funds. I've used no-load American Century International Bond (ticker: BEGBX) in the Couch Potato Building Block portfolios with mixed results. It's a managed fund and returned 8.3 percent in 2006 after losing 8.2 percent in 2005.

Q: I am 73 and have been retired for 13 years. For years I've seen a plan that suggests having fixed-income assets equal to your age, or your equity assets equal to 100 minus your age. Recently, however, I've seen recommendations of 50/50 splits. What do you think of having higher allocations to equities for older people? -- M.D., by e-mail

A: The rule of thumb you cite is from a bygone era. It dates back to when the only thing you might invest in was domestic stocks and bonds. Today, portfolios need to be put together to reflect the entire world. That means including international stocks, REITs and even emerging markets stocks. Not gigantic amounts. Just enough to indicate you know sneakers are mostly produced in Asia.

The old rule of thumb also doesn't reflect the inflation realities of today's world or increases in life expectancy. As a consequence, many financial planners and investment advisers now suggest that retirees should hold more of their assets in broadly defined equities.

A related trend is increasing recognition that investors can hold more equities if they take less risk in fixed income by investing in short-term to intermediate-term obligations. This is particularly true in markets like the one we now have, where money market fund yields are about the same as long-term bond funds.

Comments

 

ABModerator03 said:

Regarding foreign bonds there are 2 other major offerings I think: RPIBX and PFBDX. They are both unhedged which is the key here. If you look at their history it's obvious that the unhedged foreign bonds are a seperate asset class, with relatively low correlation to both US bonds and foreign equity. They also offer decent returns and if you believe in declining dollar over long horizon it's really worth considering investing in them for diversification sake, hedge against falling dollar and for additional rebalancing return.

From Scott Burns:

Sadly, the PIMCO fund (PFBDX) doesn't have enough history to say much about. The other fund you mention, T. Rowe Price International Bond (RPIBX) has trailed American Century International Bond (BEGBX) in the last year, 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years.

Fund Exp. Ratio 2006 3yrs 5yrs 10yrs
BEGBX 0.82% 8.25 3.96 10.73 4.87
RPIBX 0.88 7.55 3.23 9.74 4.33


What I'd really like to see is a low cost index fund that invested in relatively short maturity international government bonds. DFA has 2 yr and 5 yr global funds like this but they aren't available to the general public.
March 1, 2007 4:49 PM
 

ABModerator03 said:

Mr. Burns, I know from the past you tend to shy away from national fiscal issues, but your comment around Fed. Chairman Ben Bernanke raiser my hackles again. In particular, his and your pooling of four separate policy issues, as though they were prone to the same solutions.

Social Security currently runs a surplus, and can be kept solvent after 2043 +/- when it is projected to run out of reserves by adjusting the benefits some time before that to be even with the revenue stream. One option is to take out the welfare aspect of the low end contributors, and move that over to the HHS budget.

Medicare is a bit harder to understand whether it is operating with the tax revenues, or requires additional funds. It too would seem to be balance-able with changes in benefits and benefitee contributions. I tried for several hours to get an answer that made sense from both e-mails and phone calls. My best guess is that the revenues collected about equal the cost of the services provided. But if you have better information, please let me know.

The general government un-unified deficit, as measured by the annual change in the national debt, is the real problem. With an annual increase in the debt of over $500 billion each of the Bush years, and with the non-SSA/Medicare expenditures being about 130% of collected taxes, the national "effort and will" to bring that into balance is almost beyond comprehension. But, if the public doesn't see that as a key, national issue, it won't be addressed in a reasonable manner.

The trade deficit is a problem that I haven't heard anyone discuss with options that seem politically correct. And, yes I think it has a huge impact on the falling dollar.

My point is, SSA and Medicare are in a totally different arena than the un-unified collections/expenditures and the trade deficit. Any enlightenment would be appreciated.

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

Mark

From Scott Burns:

I think you need to do a reboot on your thinking about Social Security and Medicare. We're rapidly moving toward the event Bernanke is concerned about--- a tidal wave of financial commitments to provide Social Security benefits and medical care as the boomers retire. These unfunded liabilities are enormous, far larger than the formal deficit and our formal U.S. Treasury debt. You can learn about this is the book I coauthored with economist Larry Kotlikoff, "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, $18 paperback). The book was endorsed by 5 Nobel laureates and has been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Russian, and French. The English version has sold 50,000 copies, an amazing number for an academic press.

If you want to learn in smaller bites, you should check the "Social Security" category on my website.
March 4, 2007 8:16 PM
 

jarrettr said:

I think this a crucial issue. I've used the Templeton International Bond Fund (GIM) for 3-4 years and recently took a (trading stake) in Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Domestic Debt closed-end fund, which is an emerging market foreign currency/treasure fund, which was trading at a 19% discount to NAV when I bought. Don't take the latter as a recommendation, since it is a trade, in which I hope the discount will cover the risk of currency and market risk, but it is an extremely small part of the portfolio, which I may slowly increase or sell.

More importantly, I think, as a dollar hedge is a) international unhedged mutual fund invesments and b) gold/gold mining or commodities, as a small piece. Gold looks pricey; I bought a year back, and agin, if you go this route, it probably should be a very small piece of the portfolio.

Do your own due diligence on the above, but I've been taking these strategies to hedge against dollar risk/collapse. There is also something called the Permanent Value Fund? which might work a small part of the porfolio, primarily in strong currencies like the Swiss, gold, etc. (It also has a position in US Treasuries, which is why I didn't go that route.) It is a timer fund, so Scott's critique applies.

January 29, 2008 11:44 PM

About scottb

Scott Burns has covered the changing world of personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years. Today, he ranks as one of the five most widely read personal finance writers in the country. Scott began his career as a newspaper columnist at the Boston Herald in 1977 where he was also the financial editor. Nationally syndicated in 1981 and now distributed by Universal Press, the column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. In 1985 he joined the staff of the Dallas Morning News where his column quickly became one of the most widely read features in the paper. He left the Dallas Morning News in 2006 to become one of the founders of AssetBuilder and its Chief Investment Strategist. Burns is a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1962). He has written four books, including "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004) coauthored with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff. His fourth book, also coauthored with Kotlikoff, will be published this spring by Simon & Schuster. "Spend Til' the End" uses consumption smoothing to demonstrate the errors of conventional financial planning. His business experience includes working as a staffer for a major consulting company and service as a director and audit chairman of a NASDAQ listed manufacturing company. He and his wife divide their time between Dallas and Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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