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An 8 Percent Yield Means Major Risk

Q. In a recent column you told a reader that a guaranteed high investment return doesn't exist. You also said, "If someone tells you about an investment that will provide a safe 8 percent return, grab your wallet and run."

I take exception to your conclusion. I think it's possible to put together a portfolio of funds that will yield 8 percent with minimal volatility. Volatility, in any case, is irrelevant since what you are interested in is the cash from a steady 8 percent yield.

My broker has structured my IRA account into 13 funds with roughly equal allocation that returns just over 8 percent and has actually shown a slight appreciation as well. In the interest of brevity, here are the 13 ticker symbols in my IRA: AVK, BLW, CSQ, RTU, EVV, EXG, HTE, IIA, HPS, NCV, PBT, SJT, and EHI. Thought you might find this of interest. ---G. M., North Andover, MA

A. Let's talk about this five years from now. Until then, my definition of a safe return is one that is guaranteed and where the value of your investment does not fluctuate or changes very little. I'm not alone in this--- what most readers seek is a safe and certain return. When you do that, you are limited to owning relatively short-term CDs and Treasury obligations. That means the current "safe" yield on money is about 5 percent, not 8 percent.

You can get an expected yield of 8 percent by taking significant risk. That means learning to live with some ups and downs on the way to that 8 percent yield. Your list, mostly closed-end funds, gets its current yield by taking very large credit risks and interest-rate risks. Your portfolio may surprise you by providing an 8 percent yield while losing a hefty chunk of its value.

Large fluctuations in value are a fact of life. According to Ibbotson Associates, intermediate-term Treasury obligations provided an arithmetic mean return of 5.5 percent a year from 1926 through 2005. The standard deviation of the return during that period was 5.7 percent. That standard deviation figure, in English, means that your return will be the average return, plus or minus the standard deviation of the average return. This is what you will experience in two years of every three.

In one year out of three, the return will vary by more.

Reach for a higher return (yield plus capital appreciation) --- such as the 12.3 percent arithmetic average annual return of large common stocks--- and you'll have to live with still more risk. Large-cap stocks have a historical standard deviation of 20.2 percent. Few would call their return "safe."

Portfolio managers often attempt to construct portfolios using combinations of assets that don't move in sync with each other. This will reduce the standard deviation--- the volatility--- of the portfolio. But it is very difficult to assemble a portfolio that would have a truly safe 8 percent yield, year in and year out.

I believe many investors are being led astray by recent market volatility. In the last three years market volatility has been very low. The standard deviation of the S&P 500, for instance, has been only 6.91 percent--- a third of its historical norm.

So let's talk about this in five years, when you have experienced that "safe" 8 percent yield.

Q. I bought a vacation time-share from my dad for $1 several years ago. I would love to unload it. With maintenance fees, booking charges, etc., it costs about $500 a year. How can I find a way to sell it with a reputable company? I tried selling it through the homeowners' association, but no luck. I am not interested in making any money. I just want to be clear of any liability. --- M.A., by email

A. All I can suggest is that you get in touch with one of the time-share listing services. A few people buy time-shares, love them, and use their trading networks to vacation in different places. But these time-share owners are a minority. Most people are pressured into buying, only to discover they have purchased a tar baby they can't get rid of. You did your father a real favor when you took over his time-share.

If you Google "timeshare sales," you'll find listings such as www.timesharesquicksale.com, www.sellmytimesharenow.com, www.buyandselltimeshares.com, and www.vacationregister.com.

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Personal finance writer Scott Burns is syndicated by Universal Press. His twice weekly column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. He is the Chief Investment Strategist for AssetBuilder, Inc. Readers can register at www.scottburns.com. Questions/comments can be posted directly. They can also be sent, without registration, to scott@scottburns.com. Questions of general interest will be answered in future columns and on this blog.

Click on the "Archive" navigation to see other columns. All comments are welcomed and appreciated.

Comments

 

ABModerator03 said:

Whenever I get accosted by a time-share hawker I waste no time in letting them know my true feelings...they're the scum of the Earth.
April 26, 2007 3:32 AM

About scottb

Scott Burns has covered the changing world of personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years. Today, he ranks as one of the five most widely read personal finance writers in the country. Scott began his career as a newspaper columnist at the Boston Herald in 1977 where he was also the financial editor. Nationally syndicated in 1981 and now distributed by Universal Press, the column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. In 1985 he joined the staff of the Dallas Morning News where his column quickly became one of the most widely read features in the paper. He left the Dallas Morning News in 2006 to become one of the founders of AssetBuilder and its Chief Investment Strategist. Burns is a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1962). He has written four books, including "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004) coauthored with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff. His fourth book, also coauthored with Kotlikoff, will be published this spring by Simon & Schuster. "Spend Til' the End" uses consumption smoothing to demonstrate the errors of conventional financial planning. His business experience includes working as a staffer for a major consulting company and service as a director and audit chairman of a NASDAQ listed manufacturing company. He and his wife divide their time between Dallas and Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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