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The All Around Best (but Nameless) Money Manager

            In case you hadn't noticed, lots of people want to manage our vast fortunes. Many want the job even if the fortune is only half-vast.

          This should no surprise. The pay is good. The offices are air conditioned. There is no heavy lifting. Playing golf is an approved communication tool.

          Some of our aspirant managers work for brokerage houses offering mutual fund wrap accounts.  Some offer private manager separate accounts. Some work for insurance companies offering the same thing with tax benefits. Others work at trust companies with private dining rooms: They offer money management with fine china and historic silver patterns.

          All we can know for certain is that they were all born near Lake Woebegone. They all claim to be "above average."

          Are they?

          Sorry, it doesn't work that way. It also turns out that there is only one manager who is consistently ahead of his competing peers. And he's ahead in everything.  He's way ahead in domestic equities, large or small, value or growth. He leaves the competition behind in international equities. He beats most of the competition in emerging markets. He even leaves most fixed income investment managers in the dust.

          What's his name?

          You won't find it very often in the financial press. There you'll find the manager of the moment and a few pithy quotes. Indeed, I've been writing about personal finance and investments for more than three decades and I am amazed at how little press this fabulous manager gets.

          Now you can say you read it here

          His name is Mr. Index. He's the manager who simply tries to reproduce a market index rather than beat it. According to the most recent report from Standard and Poor's, Mr. Index beat most managers in most categories yet again for 2006. He has done this routinely since S&P started doing its quarterly examination of the S&P indices versus actively managed funds.[i] I'll bet big money that the second quarter report, available in mid July, won't be any different.

          The Standard & Poor's report shows the percentage of managed funds that failed to beat their appointed index. Since we're supposed to be long term investors, I prefer the figures for the trailing 5-year period. Here's a list of most major fund/index categories and the percentage of managed funds that failed to beat Mr. Index:

 

Equities:

Large blend                            75.13 percent

Large growth                          51.18

Large value                             90.74

Small blend                            76.47

Small growth                          91.78

Small value                             62.65

International                           69.46

International Small                80.65

Emerging markets                 66.67

 

Fixed Income:

Long government                  89.80

Intermediate govt.                 70.19

Short government                 75.51

High yield bonds                   84.44

Convertible bonds                60.00

Mortgage backed bonds       85.71

Global bonds                         63.33

Emerging Market bonds       47.37

         

          I've been tracking related research since the very early 70s. During that time new asset categories have been created such as high yield bonds, mortgage backed bonds, emerging markets, etc. The results, however, have been ominously consistent--- Mr. Index beats most managers virtually all of the time. The odds that any of us, amateur or professional, can select a winning money manager are very poor.

          The easiest and fastest way to improve our investment returns is to buy index funds.        

Published Aug 01 2007, 11:00 AM by scottb
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About scottb

Scott Burns has covered the changing world of personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years. Today, he ranks as one of the five most widely read personal finance writers in the country. Scott began his career as a newspaper columnist at the Boston Herald in 1977 where he was also the financial editor. Nationally syndicated in 1981 and now distributed by Universal Press, the column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. In 1985 he joined the staff of the Dallas Morning News where his column quickly became one of the most widely read features in the paper. He left the Dallas Morning News in 2006 to become one of the founders of AssetBuilder and its Chief Investment Strategist. Burns is a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1962). He has written four books, including "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004) coauthored with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff. His fourth book, also coauthored with Kotlikoff, will be published this spring by Simon & Schuster. "Spend Til' the End" uses consumption smoothing to demonstrate the errors of conventional financial planning. His business experience includes working as a staffer for a major consulting company and service as a director and audit chairman of a NASDAQ listed manufacturing company. He and his wife divide their time between Dallas and Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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