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The Value of America, in Barrels

By Scott Burns

Most of us view the world through dollar glasses. It’s perfectly reasonable. Dollars, after all, are the currency we use in daily life. And the lens, until recently, was distinctly rosy.

When we asked, “How much is that in dollars?” we usually liked the answer.

But it may be time to ask another question: “How much is that in barrels of oil?”

Trust me, others are doing exactly that.

That’s when the world starts to look very different. It also looks more than a little scary. Today, the net worth of the entire country can be purchased for a mere 481 billion barrels of oil. That’s a smidgeon more than the proven reserves of only three Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia (260 billion barrels), Iraq (115 billion barrels) and Iran (105 billion barrels).

At about 36 times its 1970 price, oil has outstripped the value created by a full working generation of Americans in a period of dramatic technological change and innovation. During the same time, the value of American business shares, as measured by the S&P 500 index, has risen to only 15 times its 1970 level.

I find that hard to believe. After all, in 1970 the Internet was only an arcane toy for academics. The computer chip had yet to be invented. Computer memory was desperately expensive. Intel had just been formed and was introducing the first dynamic random access memory chip. Bill Gates had yet to enter (or drop out of) Harvard and was 5 years from founding Microsoft. Steve Jobs was years away from creating the Apple II. He was decades from launching the iPhone. AT&T was still a single national company, owning all of the regional Bell companies.

No one was thinking that the U.S. Post Office was a quaint institution, soon to be treasured for its many buildings that could be converted to trendy condos. Phone calls were expensive. Sears, Roebuck was an important retail stock, not a real estate play by a hedge fund manager. All surgery was invasive. And it was still believed that stomach ulcers were caused by stress. Google founders Page and Brin had not yet been conceived, let alone applied to Stanford where they would create Google.

All of that dynamism and creation simply pales against the price of oil. Except for the darkest years following the second oil shock in the late 1970s, America is worth less in barrels of oil today than at any time since 1970.

I learned this by measuring the net worth of all American households and non-profit organizations in barrels of oil. Every three months the Federal Reserve estimates the value of our collective tangible assets, financial assets and liabilities to arrive at our net worth. It’s the whole enchilada--- all our cars, our houses, our durable “stuff,” bank deposits, stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. Everything. Then it subtracts all our mortgages, consumer credit and other debt to arrive at our net worth.

At the end of 2007, for instance, our collective net worth was $57.7 trillion, an unusual drop from $58.3 trillion at the end of the previous quarter. Divide $57.7 trillion by the $120-a-barrel price of oil and you get 481 billion barrels of oil as the value of America, a fraction of our national value in 1998, 1995 or even 1990.

 

The Value of America, in Barrels
This table takes the net worth of American households and nonprofit organizations as measured by the Federal Reserve and divides by the price of oil to find how many barrels of oil it would take to buy the country.
Year Household Net Worth (in billions) Price of Oil Barrels to Buy America
(in billions)
1970 $3,418.5 $ 3.18 1,075.0
1975 $5,141.5 $7.67 670.3
1980 $9,468.6 $21.59 438.6
1985 $14,206.6 $24.09 589.7
1990 $20.249.9 $20.03 1,112.0
1995 $27,732.4 $14.62 1,896.9
1998 $37,369.7 $11.18 3,342.6
2004 $48,092.8 $42.00 1,145.1
2007 $57,718.0 $120.00 481.0

 

Either oil is too expensive. Or America is too cheap.

On the web:

May 30, 2004: The Barrel Standard, Revisited

November 10, 1996: A Contrarian View of Oil

World Oil Reserves measured on Wikipedia

Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds

Comments

 

DRP said:

if you would guess,which one would you pick?

thanks,

May 9, 2008 10:49 PM
 

chirag said:

Thanks for the great article! Doesn't the simple law of "supply and demand" also factor in here. I mean the demand for oil has supposedly gone up worldwide. Is there a way to get to this figure? What I'm mean is, what was the woldwide oil consumption rate in 1970 and what's the current rate. How much oil did India/China require in 1970 as compared to today. Given these dynamics, it's easy to see why American Assets can only buy so much oil. Chirag (cpandya@gmail.com)
May 12, 2008 10:34 AM
 

fschmied said:

This article seems to raise the question of re-evaluating the US oil and gas reserves. What is Bakken, Anwar, and the coastal shelf of the US worth. There maybe 500billion barrels in the Bakken Basin alone. Also should there not be a oil and gas or commodity component in Asset Builder?
May 14, 2008 8:38 AM
 

scottb said:

Global demand has certainly increased and we are seeing net exports from a number of oil exporting nations decrease as their economic development continues. I would not be surprised if growth in demand from emerging market nations offset all but the most heroic efficiently/conservation/alternative measures that could be taken in the U.S. and Europe. The value of the U.S. is a good deal more than the $57 trillion figure cited in the column. That's the value of our household sector. The value of American infrastructure, etc. is not included. Similarly, the value of U.S. oil and gas reserves is only indirectly measured and is probably understated. But that's not the real issue. What I was trying to do in that column was contrast the value of economic growth and innovation with the value of gook in the ground. Scott
May 15, 2008 11:11 AM
 

scottb said:

I'll pick the USofA, thank you. Human invention, warts and all, continues to do a lot more for everyone on the planet than gook in the ground. Scott
May 15, 2008 11:52 AM
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