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The Involuntary (But Happy) Investor Tax Holiday

By Scott Burns

Free Tax Holiday

Life is full of perverse surprises.

A candidate for president of the United States runs on the idea that people with more money should pay more taxes. They should, he says, pay higher taxes on capital gains. They should also pay higher taxes on dividends. The new tax revenue would be used to pay for health care improvements and other government programs.

He wins.

But while the candidate was winning, the world was changing. In particular, the stock market was crashing.

Stocks were losing years of gains. An investor who put $100,000 into the Vanguard 500 Index fund in early 1998, for instance, would have collected thousands of dollars in dividends and paid taxes on same, but his investment would only be worth about $100,000. His cost basis (original investment plus reinvested dividends) would be more than $122,000. So he would have an unrealized loss of $22,000 in the middle of 2009 and he’d consider himself fortunate because he had lost so much less than others he knew.

Indeed, in our new upside-down world, there is a new brag for investors: I lost less than you lost.

So let them raise the tax rate on capital gains and dividends. While our friends in Washington will clip an extra nickel out of each dollar of dividend income, the reality is that they won’t get a cent in capital gains tax revenue because most people don’t have any gains to realize and pay taxes on.

We can also use that reality to become virtually tax-free investors for the near future.

How?

We can make mutual fund investments today that will be tax-free for years simply because the fund has large capital losses on its books. As a consequence, the stock market can rise substantially, but many funds are unlikely to realize and distribute a taxable capital gain until they have worked off their losses.

Let me give you an example. According to the Morningstar mutual fund database, the average large blend domestic equity fund had losses equal to 48 percent of its assets at the end of June. This means the average fund could gain nearly 10 percent a year for more than 4 years before it would be likely to distribute a taxable capital gain.

You wouldn’t be immune from capital gains since you could sell shares on your own and realize a capital gain at any time, but at least you would not have much chance of having the fund manager realize a capital gain and distribute it to you.

AIM Charter A shares (ticker: CHTRX), for instance, have unrealized capital losses of 73 percent of assets, according to the Morningstar database, in spite of being rated 4 stars and having performed in the top 10 percent of its peer group in the last 1, 3, and 5 year periods. Similarly, Thornburg Value A shares (ticker: TVAFX) have unrealized capital losses of 56 percent of assets in spite of a 4 star rating and having been a top-decile performer in most time periods out to 10 years.

Are there any fund categories where we can find still larger losses that will raise our chances of having an even longer tax holiday? You bet.

Exploring the Morningstar mutual fund database, I found that mid-cap growth funds, as a group, had unrealized losses equaled to 75 percent of their assets. I also found that the average technology fund had virtually no dividend income and had losses equal to a whopping 156 percent of its assets. It would take a major bull market to produce a tax bill there.

The loss figure was 96 percent for the average finance specialized fund and 97 percent for the average real estate specialized fund. These funds could basically double in value before you would be likely to face a capital gains distribution.

Note that we are not talking about tax deferral. We’re talking about investments that will be largely tax-free for quite a few years.

Combine that with wretchedly low yields on fixed-income investments, and you’ve got a really good reason to favor equities

Only published comments... Sep 11 2009, 03:00 PM by admin


Comments

 

FinanceAnswers said:

Scott,

Two excellent points,

"An investor who put $100,000 into the Vanguard 500 Index fund in early 1998, for instance, would have collected thousands of dollars in dividends and paid taxes on same, but his investment would only be worth about $100,000. His cost basis (original investment plus reinvested dividends) would be more than $122,000."

What's more, what if they had sold out of the mutual fund two or three times during those years? Well, they would have paid taxes on the gains for that holding period. More than likely they simply put the money back into a fund again, maybe the same one, which means they may have paid taxes on something, had they just held it, would have had a realized loss on of $22k. The solution, I'm not quite sure, maybe a new investing theory?

"According to the Morningstar mutual fund database, the average large blend domestic equity fund had losses equal to 48 percent of its assets at the end of June. This means the average fund could gain nearly 10 percent a year for more than 4 years before it would be likely to distribute a taxable capital gain."

Maybe this gives birth to a follow up blog based around taxes and how to maximize your capital losses.

Great article!

September 12, 2009 4:17 PM
 

rayhenry said:

Scott, this article was timely for me as I am attempting to consider undistributed mutual fund losses as a factor in determining likely future distributed fund gains within a long-term cashflow model for the purpose of developing and evaluating my longer term investment and risk management strategies. Can you provide more help with the process for determining the loss position of specific funds through Morningstar?

Additionally, any insights about how to estimate likely distributed gains from funds based on the prior 3-5yr market results would be extremely helpful. I am attempting to develop a model to  evaluate a wide range of different economic and capital market results over the next 20 or so years .

I always look forward to your articles and insight.

September 13, 2009 2:51 PM

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