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In a No-Yield Market, It Is Necessary To Take Some Risk

By Scott Burns

Q. I've got thousands of dollars in savings bonds which I bought in the years I worked for the federal government. I have no faith in President Obama and his policies. I am afraid these bonds might not be worth anything if I don't cash them soon. They're still earning interest. We don't need them to cover our living expenses—we get decent pensions and have other savings. What should we do? —M.D., by email

A. Risk, like everything else, is all relative. Whatever happens to the value of the dollar in the future will happen to all dollars. The only thing you can do is compare yields and terms. Currently, for instance, iSavings Bonds provide no yield but increase to reflect the trailing rate of inflation. In the current six month period that rate is 0.74 percent.

EE Bonds issued on or after May 2005 are yielding 0.60 percent over the same period and EE bonds issued between May 1997 and April 2005 are yielding 1.50 percent. None of those yields stir the soul. But according to recent Bank Rate Monitor figures, you'd earn less than one percent in most 1 year CDs and even less in a 6 month CD.

You can, of course, find higher yields— but not without substantial risk. If you can tolerate some risk and want an inflation hedge that pays a good yield, you might examine some of the REIT exchange traded funds (ETFs) or consider buying shares of major oil companies.

Q. We’re a married couple in our late forties. We have saved well, but invested cautiously. We now have about $100,000 in cash. What low-risk investment options exist today? Do you suggest using a financial planner? —R.O., by email

A. I suggest taking a simple, do-it-yourself route. It isn’t as difficult or as dangerous as you may think. Finding a financial planner, on the other hand, can be dangerous to your financial welfare because a large majority of those who call themselves financial planners are really sales agents, often for a particular company and a particular product. The products will invariably be burdened with high commissions and high costs. Sadly, you are likely to be the last person to benefit from your purchase, if you benefit at all.

Financial planners will send me hate mail for writing this, but this is simply the way it is. That’s why some effort at simple do-it-yourself investing is likely to be the best path.

I say this with only one proviso: I assume that you will invest in a low-cost, no-load mutual fund such as Vanguard Wellington or Vanguard Wellesley or that you will build yourself a “lazy portfolio” with index funds or exchange traded funds. If you want to see how these have done versus more expensive managed funds, visit my website and read “Expanding the Triumph of Sloth” in which I compare the performance of the best known “lazy portfolios” to diversified managed funds.

One painful reality today is that cash is a safe “investment” but it earns virtually nothing, as indicated by the answer to the preceding question. Today, to earn any return at all, it is necessary to take some amount of risk. All investments, and I mean all, will have some amount of risk. It can be interest rate risk in bonds. It can be market risk in stocks. It can be the risk of contractual provisions in insurance-based products. But there is some element of risk wherever you turn. With that in mind, one path for you to follow would be to continue holding significant cash, waiting for interest rates to rise, while establishing a starting investment in a fund of some kind.

In 2008, a year most people want to forget, the Vanguard Balanced Index fund lost 22.2 percent of its market value. That’s nasty. But if you had 75 percent of your $100,000 in cash and 25 percent in this fund, your loss for the entire sum would have been 5.55 percent.

That’s painful, but not fatal.

Over the last three years, this fund returned 1.85 percent a year, in spite of its 2008 loss. It beat 87 percent of the more expensive competing funds, most of which were sold by people who called themselves financial planners. Over the last five years this fund has returned 4.4 percent a year, beating 77 percent of its competitors. It did this by being simple, inexpensive and somewhat diversified.

Only published comments... Feb 02 2011, 03:00 PM by admin


Comments

 

Bobh said:

I have money invested in CDs at 1.5 %. I am not aware of any risk as the banks I use are all backed by the FDIC.  Will you comment please.  Bob

February 3, 2011 9:46 AM
 

CHJr said:

Bobh,

The original investment funds in your CD may not be at risk since it is FDIC insured. However, there is interest rate risk, which Scott mentions in the article. For example, if you have 100,000 invested in CDs at 1.5%, then there is a risk that interest rates will rise making the return on your 1.5% CD less valuable than a CD with say 2.0%. In that case, on a 1 year $100,000 CD you would have risked forgoing $500.00 in potential interest earnings by locking in on the 1.5% instead of earning the prevailing 2%.

February 4, 2011 9:26 AM
 

Bobh said:

CSJr -

Thanks for your reply and of course you are right.  I try to reduce the risk by using 1 year CDs and taking a new one every other month.  This means that when rates start going up (and they will sometime) I can take advantage of the higher rates.    Bob

February 7, 2011 9:45 AM
 

nisiprius said:

I think Scott Burns misunderstood the question about savings bonds and blew it.

"Q. I've got thousands of dollars in savings bonds which I bought in the years I worked for the federal government. I have no faith in President Obama and his policies. I am afraid these bonds might not be worth anything if I don't cash them soon. They're still earning interest. We don't need them to cover our living expenses—we get decent pensions and have other savings. What should we do? —M.D., by email"

Now, why on earth would this person be "afraid these bonds might not be worth anything if I don't cash them soon?" He knows they earn interest for thirty years. If they're EE bonds, they pay something very roughly like market rates, comparable to bank CDs and such at the time they were purchased, and he's managed to lock in the rates of years ago for thirty years. If they're I bonds, all that and inflation protection too. Why would he think they are not worth anything? I can only guess, of course, but...

...he's been spooked by the "bond bubble" talk. He does not understand that a savings "bond" that pays interest for thirty years is not the same thing as a long-term Treasury bond. He's heard that interest rates "can only go up" and that "bond" holders will be in a "world of hurt" as their value plummets. He thinks his savings bonds will "not be worth anything" because interest rates will rise.

February 26, 2011 7:25 AM
 

nisiprius said:

Let me make that clearer, and put it more positively. Scott Burns ought to clear things up by saying in his column:

* that--barring a Treasury default--savings bonds are not marketable securities;

* their redemption value does not fluctuate with the market;

* savings "bonds" work differently from ordinary Wall Street "bonds" and "Treasuries,"

* whatever the truth about a "bond bubble," might be, it does not affect savings bond holders

* if you have a savings bond that's more than a few years old, you have something as safe and as liquid as any bank account, and you've probably locked in a higher interest rate; you shouldn't redeem the bond if you don't need the money.

February 26, 2011 7:43 AM
 

nisiprius said:

(I need to be more careful to read before posting, sorry ) The phrase "--barring a Treasury default--" doesn't belong in my previous posting.

February 26, 2011 8:41 AM

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