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How Much Is Your Social Security Worth?

By Scott Burns

Q. I have a good handle on an asset allocation for my situation, but I’m not sure what to include in determining the value of my nest egg. Should I include the value of my Social Security as part of my nest egg by using the interest rate on a 30-year Treasury bond? Social Security is really better than the 30-year bond. I do not have a pension.

My home is paid for. Should I consider some value like the rent I don’t have to pay? —J.B., Lakeway, Texas

A. You can calculate the imputed value of your Social Security income but for what purpose? It won't be part of your estate. It is only an income right, not an asset. Most people, when they do such calculations, find that their imputed assets— the assets they would need to have to replace the income they receive from Social Security or other retirement pension— are a lot larger than the actual financial assets they have.

The only use for this information is as a rough guide to asset allocation for the financial assets you do have. For instance, if Social Security and/or a pension provide 80 percent of income you can take more risk with financial assets than if Social Security and/or a pension provide only 20 percent of income.

You can do a rough valuation of your Social Security benefits by visiting the website www.immediate annuities.com and entering your gender, age and benefit. The website will calculate how much you would have to invest, in the current market, to get that benefit as a fixed payment. You'll need to add about 50 percent to the sum to compensate for the fact that Social Security benefits are inflation-adjusted and the vast majority of private life annuities are not.

The average Social Security benefit in 2012 will be a bit over $1,200 a month. For a 66 year old male without a spouse who might receive future benefits, that's worth about $196,000 for a fixed annuity benefit and about $300,000 as an inflation-adjusted life income equivalent to Social Security.

Your house provides you with an imputed income in the form of shelter services. It is a nice income to have for two reasons. It is not in cash. It is not taxable. If you imagine two people with equal cash incomes living in identical houses, one owned and one rented, the owner would be able to maintain a much higher standard of living because he would not be paying rent. Nor would he be paying taxes on the cash income he needs to pay the rent.

Q. I inherited $140,000. I have left it in a money market account for months not knowing what to do with it. I am 54, single, and chronically ill, but still trying to work. What are your suggestions for what to do with the money? —J. G., by email

A. Join the crowd! Most people are frozen at the switch, unable to make a decision about buying or selling. If they already have a diversified portfolio, indecision may not be a bad thing. In your case, with $140,000 in cash, you are safe but slowly bleeding to death from loss of purchasing power to inflation.

You can overcome indecision by making a conscious decision about how much risk you can tolerate. Suppose, for instance, that you didn't want to face a portfolio loss of more than 2 percent. Well, you could invest 10 percent of the money in a broad market index fund. Then, the index fund could decline by as much as 20 percent and the total loss to your entire portfolio would be only 2 percent. Even if we had another meltdown like 2008-2009 the impact on your portfolio would be no more than 5 percent.

The market would have to decline about 35 percent for your total portfolio loss to equal the 3.5 percent loss in purchasing power you would suffer by being in cash for a year since the trailing inflation rate is about 3.5 percent.

Only published comments... Dec 07 2011, 03:00 PM by admin


Comments

 

calathea said:

The reason I persistently and doggedly read every single one of Scott's columns is that these incredibly relevant questions come up.  

I guess Scott answered my question with the comment about indecision not being a bad thing if you already have a diversified portfolio.  I have rolled my small, frozen-many-years-ago pension and 401k money into a traditional IRA that I control.  That, along with my Roth IRA, is invested in diversified couch-potato stock and bond index funds.

So, the cash I inherited sits there.  I have been frozen at the switch just like Scott said.  I am using the cash to pay myself a weekly stipend, because my unemployment benefits ran out and I am too young for Social Security.  And I am no longer willing to sacrifice my health working for da man, even if by some miracle a job came available that didn't cost more to work it than it paid.  

It is comforting to know that other people are also trying to figure out what to do with their money.  Leave it in cash, inflation takes it. The market is rigged/crooked and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything about it, not even a transaction fee to curtail the high-volume speculation.  It seems possible that there could be a huge irreversible drop in the markets just like in housing.

I'm even afraid to convert my collectibles into cash in case inflation goes rampant.  So I leave everything alone,  stock up on essentials that have a long storage life, amuse myself by reading free library books on the cheapest Kindle, and hope for the best.

I guess my question is this:  Leaving aside the cash that is earmarked for expenses for the next 5 years, of the rest of someone's money, what percentage should be in cash?

December 8, 2011 5:33 PM
 

Barney said:

I cannot answer your question.  However, my nest egg IRA is 50% in CPI linked investment grade corporate bonds, with the goal of earning at least 2-3% above inflation.  The remainder of the IRA is in fixed rate investment corporate bonds, to protect me from deflation.  The entire portfolio is a seven year bond ladder, allowing me to access cash as needed from maturing bonds.

I am not invested in the stock market.  I embarked on the bond strategy at the end of 2006, after my then 80 % portfolio of stocks recovered from the previous crash, swearing never to gamble on stocks again.  I completely avoided the crash of 2007-2008, and have continued to achieve my goals of 2-3% over CPI inflation, with this low risk strategy.

I am 100% retired, receiving SS and an inflation adjusted modest pension.  I can live on only this income, so my nest egg is currently being preserved for when I need to move into assisted living, etc.  I do not need to take chances  in the stock market to avoid longevity risk, so I do not.  Thus this strategy has worked for me, but may not be appropriate for everyone else.

I'm sure Scott Burns wouldn't approve of this ultra-conservative approach, but his columns and correspondence have been the inspiration for me to find an approach that will let me sleep at night.

December 9, 2011 5:31 AM

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