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Buy or Rent Home in Retirement

Last post 07-16-2008 1:56 PM by scottb. 4 replies.
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  • 06-10-2008 12:46 PM

    • LindaW
    • Top 500 Contributor
    • Joined on 06-10-2008
    • Posts 2

    Buy or Rent Home in Retirement

    My husband 52 and I (61) retired one year ago. We have close to $2 million in assets (stock, mutual funds, and life insurance with convertible option, not including equity in current home). Our living expenses for 2007 were $58,000. I predict this level of spending for the foreseeable future. In 2007 we sold one of our homes for a net profit of $100k which we invested. We are currently living in our 2nd home, a condo on the water, which we own, free and clear.
     

    We would like to move out-of-state for lifestyle issues. Due to the current market, properties in this area are either not selling, or selling at 25% less than a year ago. If we reduced the price to sell at this point, we could sell for $150,000. We paid $100k 10 years ago, but would like to hold it and rent for a few years until the market improves.

    We could rent out this condo for a net profit of $2,000 per year.

    Properties in the area where we want to move are selling for a minimum of $200k up to $300k. At the low end, we would have to reinvest all of our profit from our two home sales. At the high end, we would have to reinvest and take out a small mortgage. We could rent in this area for $1200 per month. A one year bridge loan would require 10% down and 5 1/2% interest. One year will not be enough time for the local market to rebound.

    My gut feeling tells me to at least rent a dwelling  in the new locale until the local market improves and we can get more  equity out of our current condo, but even then, would it make sense to continue renting instead of paying cash for a new home or even  taking out a partial mortgage on the home? Any benefit to preserving the reverse mortgage option for future cash flow?

    Thanks, LindaW

  • 06-11-2008 4:58 AM In reply to

    • Barney
    • Top 50 Contributor
    • Joined on 09-10-2007
    • Posts 9

    Re: Buy or Rent Home in Retirement

    Hello LindaW-

     I am facing a similar circumstance- retired & wanting to relocate with a house to sell.  There are lots of variables as you have suggested.  I will be interested in Scott's reply.  However, in the interim, you may wish to read the following article http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-ym-spending-0601jun01,0,280779.story, and please follow the embedded Houseonomics link in the article to a website established by some credentialed economists.  You won't get a complete answer to your question, but it may help you to identify some of the important variables.

  • 06-11-2008 12:52 PM In reply to

    Re: Buy or Rent Home in Retirement

    Lots of people are facing decisions like this but, sadly, it is what I call a "horse race decision"--- the answer is a bet on two housing markets over the next year or so. It would be nice if the condo you had to sell would appreciate enough to make it easier to buy the condo you want to buy but if the markets move in parallel (the most likely situation) the gap you face will grow if markets rise and shrink if markets continue to sink.

    Rather than make that bet--- or spend a lot of time worrying about it--- I suggest that you do a fundamental analysis. Is the new condo worth $200k to $300k to you? If it is, buy it. Remember, your financial assets are 7 to 10 times as large so you are not likely to be house poor if you buy the more expensive condo.

    The biggest risk you face is the fate of the condo you want to sell. It doesn't appear to be a very good investment as a rental since it nets only $2,000 a year so you would be better off selling it ASAP.

    Most of the people who are in this situation ARE house poor--- their housing assets are very large in relation to their financial assets so they are likely to become over-extended. I don't think this will happen to you.

    Scott

     

  • 07-09-2008 11:06 AM In reply to

    • LindaW
    • Top 500 Contributor
    • Joined on 06-10-2008
    • Posts 2

    Re: Buy or Rent Home in Retirement

    Now we have sold the house (second home)!!!  We have $113,000 from a previous first home sale in 2006, and will net $170,000 from this sale. We will have 2008 income of approximately $47,000 in taxable dividends and capital gains and this should hold steady over time. I will start taking social security at 62 in Jan 2009 at $1200 per month. My husband will start taking social security in 10 years.

    I have compared renting to buying.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of difference in the annual costs when I calculate tax benefits, etc, and so for personal reasons, we want to buy. We also think our equity will be “safer” in real estate in Colorado than in the stock market over the next 15 years. The houses we want to purchase in Estes Park, Colorado are in the $220,000 to 275,000 range. Do you advise putting as much down as possible or as little? do you advise a 15 yr or a 30 year mortgage? If we put minimum down, where would you suggest investing our equity

    Thanks for your advice.
  • 07-16-2008 1:56 PM In reply to

    Re: Buy or Rent Home in Retirement

    If you are young having a mortgage is a good thing because you are paying it out of your labor earnings. As Kotlikoff and I point out in our new book, "Spend 'til the End", the real value of home mortgages is NOT their interest payment tax deductions. It is the long term declining value of the debt due to inflation.

    But you are in a different situation. Instead of making mortgage payments from your labor earnings you'll be making them from your retirement income and investment returns. That means you are betting that you'll earn a higher return on your investments than you'll pay on your mortgage debt.

    That isn't a good bet because you'll have to make steady payments of principal and interest every month while the market will fluctuate. Basically, you are betting on being able to take over 7 percent a year out of your investments. (You'll pay $75.85 a year for every $1,000 you borrow at 6.5 percent for 30 years, or about 7.58 percent.) Read the "portfolio survival" section of my website and you'll see that isn't a good bet.

    The rent vs. buy decision is a very personal one. You can only go so far on the economics. The case for renting is pretty simple: in many markets your monthly rent will be very close to the monthly operating expenses (excluding any mortgage) of a house you own. (Individually owned residential properties tend to be much more heavily taxed than investment properties.) When that's the case, if you can find a rental property you like, you'll be ahead of the game by cost of the house because you'll have that money for investment.

    Another argument for renting is that you will generally be able to find a smaller unit if you rent than if you buy. There are many 1200 square foot two bedroom apartments available but you'll be hard pressed to buy a 1,200 square foot house these days and condos of that size tend to be premium priced.

    All that said, many people will choose to spend a premium on shelter because it's where they live and spend most of their time.

    Scott

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